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Showing 1 of 1541 conversations about:
OracleKev
245
Jun 16, 2017
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Wow, after ransoming 1.75u Shift and ISO Enter, then screwing UK, I didn't think you can top that.
Warnings Signs Kit Fiasco will be remembered as a prime example of how not to do Group Buy.
What a divisive move segregating those who got deals and those who subsidize.
"Salt is a way of life"? Are you and fanboys actually celebrating misfortunes of others?
I'm glad I'm not part of this game.
mkcolb
312
Jun 16, 2017
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OracleKevThe initial buyers got warning signs for $12.99, and now it is $24.99. $24.99 for 36 keys is a very fair price, and is in line with previous SA drops. The people buying for $24.99 are not subsidizing the original sales, they are simply paying fair market value.
I don't see it as "misfortunes of others" for the people who pay $24.99. I see that group as paying a fair price, and the group paying $12.99 as those who happened to get a good deal. In my opinion, this was handled about as well as could have been expected (especially considering Yanbo was out of town on vacation, and he is the primary guy for this MD community), and people either get the kit at a great price, or a good price if they waited to join.
I don't see it as "misfortunes of others" for the people who pay $24.99. I see that group as paying a fair price, and the group paying $12.99 as those who happened to get a good deal. In my opinion, this was handled about as well as could have been expected (especially considering Yanbo was out of town on vacation, and he is the primary guy for this MD community), and people either get the kit at a great price, or a good price if they waited to join.
OracleKev
245
Jun 16, 2017
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mkcolb$24.99 for 36 keys probably is break even price. Possibly slight loss.
Therefore, who is subsidizing? It's not the people paying $24.99. It's everyone who did not get in on the cheap Warning Signs Kit.
I don't know what the final ratio is going to be between "Got deals" versus "Got had". Let's assume it's 1:1. Each person on one side is forking over $10+ to each person on the other side. If it's 2:1, well you do the math.
You could be right that many may be getting good deal regardless, but that's besides the point. And, I don't see how Yanbo being out of town is of relevance (plenty can be said about timing but not going to go there).
MD should be glad this is a few hundred dollar merchandise for thousands of people. If it were real money in mass market, this type of pricing practice will invite entirely different kinds of trouble.
mkcolb
312
Jun 16, 2017
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OracleKevI disagree with this analysis. The people who didn't buy the cheap warning signs kit are not subsidizing the people who did. The people subsidizing the cheap warning signs are massdrop themselves, through lost revenue. Unless the prices of other kits were raised, or additional drop points are being withheld (neither of which we have any evidence for), then every other kit in the group buy is completely unaffected by this. For example, someone who simply bought alphas+modifiers is paying the same price now as they would have if this mess never happened; they aren't subsidizing anyone. Your premise of the "original warning signs group" being subsidized by others in the group buy relies on the assumption that other kits are more expensive than they would have been if warning signs was correctly priced from the start, which does not seem to be the case.
EDIT: the reason I brought up Yanbo being out of town is that I think this whole situation would have been dealt with much more quickly if he was at the office. If the prices were corrected a day or two after the drop started, rather than two weeks after it started, I think there would be a lot less anger from the community.
EDIT: the reason I brought up Yanbo being out of town is that I think this whole situation would have been dealt with much more quickly if he was at the office. If the prices were corrected a day or two after the drop started, rather than two weeks after it started, I think there would be a lot less anger from the community.
OracleKev
245
Jun 16, 2017
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mkcolbYou seem quick to disagree. Do you have data to back up your unconventional logic?
Each kit is supposed to have margin built-in in varying degree. It's already generally accepted that Alphas and Modifiers Kit may have little padding based on their pricing and Drop price curve.
With the Warning Signs Kit, the problem was it had negative margin.
The kits in margin sweetspot is subsidizing the kits of low positive or negative margin.
The only way this logic falters is if MD is losing money which I highly doubt at this volume and with their standing with SP.
So, unless you have data to prove your points, your statements are BS.
mkcolb
312
Jun 16, 2017
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OracleKevWell, I certainly agree with you that MD is not losing money on the drop as a whole. And yes, of course, once SP gives pricing tiers to MD, MD adds a margin on top of that to ensure they remain profitable.
For me to believe that group buy participants are "subsidizing" those who purchased the warning signs at the original price, I would need to see evidence that demonstrates people who didn't buy that kit are paying more than they would have if the kit was priced correctly from the beginning. Do you have any knowledge of such a thing happening? For instance, if alphas+ergodox+novelties is more expensive now than it would have been if the warning sign prices were always correct, I would agree with you completely. I just haven't seen anything that leads me to believe that is the case.
EDIT: I would rather not get into an argument where we are telling each other we are full of BS. I understand why you (and many others) are upset by the price hike, and can empathize. The only thing I am trying to say (and perhaps I am not being very clear) is that I do not think the incorrect warning signs prices resulted in people who didn't get that kit to have to pay more for the other kits. If that were the case, this would be a much bigger problem.
For me to believe that group buy participants are "subsidizing" those who purchased the warning signs at the original price, I would need to see evidence that demonstrates people who didn't buy that kit are paying more than they would have if the kit was priced correctly from the beginning. Do you have any knowledge of such a thing happening? For instance, if alphas+ergodox+novelties is more expensive now than it would have been if the warning sign prices were always correct, I would agree with you completely. I just haven't seen anything that leads me to believe that is the case.
EDIT: I would rather not get into an argument where we are telling each other we are full of BS. I understand why you (and many others) are upset by the price hike, and can empathize. The only thing I am trying to say (and perhaps I am not being very clear) is that I do not think the incorrect warning signs prices resulted in people who didn't get that kit to have to pay more for the other kits. If that were the case, this would be a much bigger problem.
OracleKev
245
Jun 16, 2017
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mkcolbI don't have data that pinpoints P/L for each kit at certain volume.
But the current situation has the numbers so skewed that napkin math says a lot.
Let's just assume $24.99 is break even for the Warning Signs Kit. There are 922 sold at last count at $12.99. That's (24.99 - 12.99) * 922 in the hole. MINUS $11064. That's a big hole.
At this point, the drop page is showing 7898 Purchased. If you take Alphas (1721) and Modifiers Kit (1235) out of the picture assuming they are extremely low margin, then you have the remaining 4942 kits (7898 - 1721 - 1235) covering -$11064 hole. It's more than $2 for each kit when evenly spread.
This is not conclusive as there are many other variables. Feel free to take it as you see fit.
schoolbus
1292
Jun 16, 2017
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OracleKevJesus, imagine what you could accomplish if you focused your incredible mental willpower on something you actually know about instead of assumptions based on what you think makes sense.
I imagine you've completely ruined your living room with charts and graphs tacked up on your wall with lines connecting them trying to figure out the conspiracy behind business and making money and uncovering the "massive scam" that is Massdrop and keyboards.
You know, you could just... not buy them?
I imagine you've completely ruined your living room with charts and graphs tacked up on your wall with lines connecting them trying to figure out the conspiracy behind business and making money and uncovering the "massive scam" that is Massdrop and keyboards.
You know, you could just... not buy them?
OracleKev
245
Jun 16, 2017
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AzraelianNot really...
I don't plan to participate in this drop. I like the design and and its pioneering stature, but it will remind me of all these mind boggling things, so I will pass.
I actually thought about purchasing 100 Waning Signs Kits a week ago just to see what happens, but that just seemed mean and uncool.
At the end of the day, people will buy what they want deal or not--I'm not trying to change that.
OracleKev
245
Jun 16, 2017
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schoolbusTake your cheap shots elseshwere.
Keep your crap imagination to yourself, I'm not interested.
What I do with my time and money is none of your business.
dead_pixel_design
654
Jun 16, 2017
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OracleKevTo play Devil's advocate for a moment, I don't care about your argument about the drop, you are of course entitled to your opinion there, but I take issue with "What I do with my time and money is none of your business." because as soon as you start posting it publicly it becomes anyone who is interested's business, you don't really get to say it isn't anyone's anymore:
" I don't plan to participate in this drop. "
" I actually thought about purchasing 100 Waning Signs Kits a week ago "
" I'm glad I'm not part of this game. "
It's everyone's business now.
schoolbus
1292
Jun 16, 2017
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dead_pixel_designExactly, he clearly wanted to rile people up for whatever reason and then got upset when people called him on his bluff.
So many better ways to spend your free time, but I digress.
So many better ways to spend your free time, but I digress.
mkcolb
312
Jun 16, 2017
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schoolbusYeah, this warning signs thing is causing way more angst than it should. Honestly, I got in at the low price, but was expecting to end up paying more as it was obviously a pricing error, and I just assumed MD would end up charging everyone more for the kit. The fact that MD and SP covered the loss is about as nice of a resolution anyone could ask for.
EnsuingRequiem
83
Jun 16, 2017
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OracleKevWhat you are overlooking, and has been pointed out to you repeatedly, is that the "subsidy" you are referring to would have existed regardless of a mis-price or not. None of the drop points went UP in price, so there's been no adjustment to other kits to make up for lost revenue. If I remember the original drops for Warning Signs, the individual colorways are priced at the drop point they originally would have been (likely presuming individual colorways). MD isn't in the business of losing money, so yes, they price to earn a profit. The mis-price of Warning Signs cut into their existing profit, but unless you show that other prices have gone up, there's not an actual "subsidy." At this point, you could just count the original Warning Signs among MD's loss-leaders for the kits.
OracleKev
245
Jun 18, 2017
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VigrithAt least someone is getting a laugh out of this.
What's really funny is this drop is wildly successful despite like trifecta of screw-ups.
Somebody must have been a saint in before-life.
Let's move on, shall we?
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