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ZUUL42
282
Jul 5, 2017
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Doh! I just noticed the estimated ship date. Mar 22, 2018!!! 8 months 22 days. That's 37 weeks 6 days. Or 265 days. This is going to be one hell of a wait, much more than any drop before.
Jul 5, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 6, 2017
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ZUUL42You were so innocent... welcome to the club!
Jul 6, 2017
GoKartMozart
78
Jul 6, 2017
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ZUUL42Yea as much as I wanted these keycaps, I just cant see paying 250+ dollars for them on top of waiting 8+ months to get them. The whole point of group buys is to save money by sacrificing time. These keycaps are selling for more than what you can buy other sets that go straight to market from SP on top of an 8+ month wait. I just couldn't in good faith support it. SP will continue to have year long lead times and charge outrageous prices unless we speak out with our wallets.
Jul 6, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 6, 2017
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GoKartMozartThat claim is not true I'm afraid. SP itself rarely sells doubleshot ABS SA sets, the last time was a couple leftovers of Jukebox R2 I think. Other than those very rare occasions the only place to buy these sets is the aftermarket, such as /r/mechmarket or GH/DT forums, and there you'll be looking to pay upwards of 150$ just for a TKL kit which was available in this drop for 80$. I spent 257$ on this drop including shipping for 9 kits. 250$ will never get you this far on the aftermarket, thus group buys like these are still very much needed.
Jul 6, 2017
GoKartMozart
78
Jul 6, 2017
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OblotzkyI understand the group buys are needed, and I dont have an issue paying the higher price. I do however have issue paying the higher price on top of a 265+ day wait. It should be one or the other not both. That's what I mean by speaking with our wallets. SP will continue to have long lead times and charge high prices unless we stand together and demand with our money that they change how they operate. I understand that there are not many companies that produce these keycaps and that SP has a full time business on top of producing these. However my point still stands, paying 250+ for something and then waiting 8+ months for it is outrageous. I dont even know if Ill be living in the same place 8 months from now.
Jul 6, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 6, 2017
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GoKartMozartNobody forced you to buy 250$ worth of kits? A TKL with Warning Signs would've been 105$.
Jul 6, 2017
GoKartMozart
78
Jul 6, 2017
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OblotzkyYea except i dont have a TKL. I have Leopold 980M so Id have to buy several kits just to cover it. Plus let's not kid ourselves, for most, the kit isnt a kit without all the flashy keys to go with it, so after all is said an done, I was looking at 257 and change if i remember correctly. And again, it's not really the price. It's the price and the wait. If i could have dropped 250+ and gotten then in a month I would have been okay with that. But 8+ months plus 250+ was not justifiable for me.
Jul 6, 2017
GoKartMozart
78
Jul 6, 2017
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GoKartMozartAlso, I do not understand why the drop occurred so far in advance. It doesn't take 8+ months to make keycaps. I know SP has a production schedule, why wasn't the drop done closer to when the slot in that schedule would occur? Other than having thousands of people pay MD so the money could sit in escrow and acquire interest until SP get's paid, I dont really understand why the drop didn't occur closer to the manufacturing time so as to avoid a 8+ month lead time. Because honestly, with SP's track record for delays, I will be surprised if these are shipped out come March 2018.
Jul 6, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 6, 2017
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GoKartMozartBecause SP schedules production after an order has been paid for, they don't reserve slots for you because you told them you are going to buy caps in that month.
Jul 6, 2017
GoKartMozart
78
Jul 6, 2017
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OblotzkyThey they need to get production times down. It's unrealistic to expect customers to pay for something that they wont get for almost a year.
Jul 6, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 6, 2017
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GoKartMozartThe fact that 2k+ people bought Carbon is proof that it is actually not unrealistic. Sure, they'd most certainly make more sales with shorter lead times, god knows how many kits this set would have sold if it shipped in 2 months. But people are still happy to throw their money at them regardless. It's been 6 months since the last SA GB on MD (Dasher in December), yet the queue grew further with various GB's happening on KeyClack, various Chinese forums and a couple private GB's.
Jul 6, 2017
GoKartMozart
78
Jul 6, 2017
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OblotzkyWhich means that lead times are going to only get further and further out. Sure 2k people bought it, and believe me I almost did as well, because there really is no other option. Which is why i decided to drop out. If people are not willing to make a stand, by not buying it, then things will only get more expensive and lead times will be further out as time goes on. It's the nature of the beast with SP being the only ones that make good quality SA keycaps. At some point we have to stop and ask ourselves, is this really okay. I want to get in on SA oblivion when it drops, and I really wanted SA Carbon, but I had to draw the line.
Jul 6, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 6, 2017
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GoKartMozartI understand the frustration, and applaud your commitment to pass on a set you'd very much want to own to make a point, but personally I feel it won't do much. I know you'd say "but if everyone thinks so, then there won't be change", but lets be real, people are shit at sticking together, myself included :/ Sure I'd love shorter lead times and would love to help get there, but the way the system works right now I don't see how I can make a dent in it so I'll just be playing along like many others. 2018 me will thank current me, I hope...
I hope I'll see you around for Oblivion nonetheless, but can understand if you choose not to!
Jul 6, 2017
rowie
1096
Keyboard Club Member
Jul 7, 2017
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Oblotzkyplease add more space cadet colored keys! i'd love it on the ergodox as well, and maybe a spacebar in space cadet blue. Heck I'd even buy a space cadet alphas set instead of the dark grey.
Jul 7, 2017
Scann3r
43
Jul 7, 2017
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OblotzkyOblivion is soooo sick, MUST HAVE!
Jul 7, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 7, 2017
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rowieI explored it to add it for Ergodox too (check the thread on GeekHack) but there are so many kits already and Monochrome was supposed to be a cherry on top of the GB, not a fully supported colorway to piggyback the main Oblivion set. Spacecadet alphas belong to 7bit, try to snatch some leftovers like I did :)
Jul 7, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 7, 2017
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#1 This is a doubleshot ABS SA keycap set, a different production pipeline than dyesubbed PBT DSA caps #2 back in 2015, the queue for doubleshot ABS SA keycaps was also 3-4 months roughly, but it's not 2015 anymore, demand has increased a lot
Jul 7, 2017
Oblotzky
2870
Oblotzky
Jul 7, 2017
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There are literally 10 SA GB's for every DSA dyesub GB :)
Jul 7, 2017
ChitownM2
736
Jul 9, 2017
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The market for mechanical keyboards has at least tripled, if not more, since 2015. There is a reason that every major accessory manufacturer has 3-4 mech keyboards now when in 2015 they had 1 or none.
Jul 9, 2017
Amnesia1187
544
Jul 10, 2017
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You are fundamentally misunderstanding how this entire process works.
SP has a limited capacity, they can only produce so much at a time. I believe they have a single manufacturing line for SA key caps. The lead time is literally how long it will take to produce all the other in progress group buys and custom orders to GET TO your caps. The only way to produce carbon faster, would be to jump everything else in line, but that just means you delay something else.
I don't expect Dasher/Dancer ppl would be too happy if you told them you delayed their set, nor would people who ordered SA strong spirit, or people who ordered SA 1965 or SA Ocean Dolch or SA Senna or SA 88 Commando or SA Photo Studio or SA Blue Mods or SA Cream Cheese & Green or SA Corner Creatures.
That's at least 10 other open group buys for SP SA Double-Shots. How would you explain to all of them why they were ALL delayed because some people couldn't deal with the wait on carbon.
It's not that they CAN'T produce any given set faster, it's that people are literally running group buys and ordering more custom key caps than they have the CAPACITY to produce, so even with constant production, there is a queue.
So yes, sure SP COULD add another line, but I would imagine 9 months lead time isn't even close enough to justify the cost of expansion. You have to keep in mind, an expansion only works if it is viable LONG TERM. The cost of equipment for a second line and the extra costs associated with running it would be TREMENDOUS up front. They would need new machines, more space, etc. I bet it would be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. So then you gotta think, what would the end result be?
The lead time is slowly growing for sure, but will it last? How long? Will the rate increase or decrease? As it stands right now, I bet if they added a second SA doubleshot line, they could start reducing the lead time, which is great for us, but what would the benefit be to SP? Reducing lead time sounds great in theory, until you realize what it actually means. Reducing lead time means you are operating under capacity, and that is bad, as that means, once you have killed your queue your expensive investment is just sitting there idle.
The point being no company is going to invest in increasing capacity unless they are also expecting to increase volume to match. We are talking about spending what would likely be more than the net profit they will make on the entire SA Carbon order. It just doesn't make sense to blow that much money unless the end result is doubling sales, which seems ambitious and risky.
I bet if in another year or two or three the queue has continued to grow and orders are still rolling in, then they MIGHT consider a second keycap line, but for now I imagine it's extremely unlikely.
Jul 10, 2017
MechWalker78
5
Jul 13, 2017
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Amnesia1187I generally agree with all that, good summary.
For what it's worth, it seems to me like general consumer awareness and uptake of mech boards is growing rapidly. I know Carbon was a bit of an exception but looking at other active popular drops like Nautilus it certainly seems like we're now in the domain of desirable keysets regularly selling thousands of base-kit units per-drop rather than hundreds (as has been the case up until very recently).
Given the growing user-base it seems highly unlikely the demand for this will drop below the current levels anytime soon, and if anything is more likely to increase (although granted that is purely speculation on my part).
I think the problem SP are going to have if they don't expand capacity and the backlog does keep growing is that people start to pursue alternate options. Companies in China are already starting to fill this void in producing SA sets in reasonable time frames and it certainly seems like a growing number of people are willing to sacrifice the benefits of SP in terms of quality & compatibility to get SA keysets produced faster (and also generally cheaper).
The more this continues to happen the more incentive that the Chinese factories have to invest in their production capabilities and QC processes etc. and become really viable alternates to SP.
Now, as a consumer this is great as there's more choice/options out there. If I was in SP's shoes though I'd be looking at how I could stem the rise of alternate SA manufacturers and try to keep hold of what is currently a pretty dominant market position.....and looking from the outside in it certainly seems like the major reason people are starting to go elsewhere is the production delays.....
Jul 13, 2017
TheAlchemist
35
Jul 13, 2017
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ZUUL42lol i just noticed as well. wtf
Jul 13, 2017
dsaf
130
Jul 14, 2017
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MechWalker78SP has quality control? Have you seen the Godspeed disaster?
Jul 14, 2017
MechWalker78
5
Jul 14, 2017
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dsafHaha, yeh I know....but it's all relative. Compared to the other options for SA sets just now where you know (at best) you're going to get some misaligned legends, "SHIF T" etc. I think it's hard to argue that there are any better "quality" options than SP right now if you want the SA profile.
I guess that's really my point though, even with all their issues they still have a huge queue of buyers lining up to the point where they can't realistically take any more orders now. It screams opportunity and if they can't figure out a way to meet that demand someone else almost certainly will.
Jul 14, 2017
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