I did the math on this one, partly because I am *so tired* of hearing people complain about Blue Boxes, but also because I was curious.
==Disclaimers:==
1) These calculations assume United States shipping. Sorry everyone else :/
2) I looked at precisely the models offered here. Certainly, you can get the plain blade with a black handle for cheaper than any of the models listed here. So what? If that's what you want, go and buy it. Otherwise, if you're interested in one of the offered models, read on...
3) My calculation is based on "street price"; aka the lowest offer for New on Amazon (excluding one offer from a new seller that is blatantly in violation of Spyderco MAP), with free shipping. Amazon was cheaper or on-par with KnifeCenter for all models.
4) I don't take into account taxes (since Massdrop ships from New Jersey, whereas Amazon, er, usually doesn't), and I don't know where *you* live. The ~$10 of tax might tip the balance for you either way depending on place of residence.
=="Street" prices:==
C36GPCMO $155.97 C36GPCMOBK $167.97 C36GPBK $167.97 C36GPDBL $173.97 C36TIP $191.54 C36TIFP $281.97
* Note that C36GPCMO and C36GPCMOBK are both part of the combined 50% for Spyderco Military with G-10 Handle (black or digi camo), but are priced differently. Therefore I had to split them up, each with 25% probability overall.
==Results:==
Not taking into account the extra bonuses, the expected value of the drop is $170.51. So, expected value ($170.51) - lowest drop price ($155.99) - shipping ($3.50) = $11.02 *predicted* savings.
I didn't do the math wrt to the bonus prizes, but intuition suggests it is insignificant for the expected value calculation.
==Observations:==
1) Save for shipping, in no circumstances are you paying more than you would have paid Amazon.
2) You have a 50% chance of paying *at least* $11 (factoring in shipping) *less* than you would have on Amazon. ~$11 is the "worst case" part of this 50%. Obviously the savings ramp up dramatically as the probabilities fall.
3) At the extreme, you have a 2% chance of saving $122.48 (if you get the fluted titanium model).
==Conclusions:==
It's a statistics game. There are several variables that affect whether this makes sense for you or not. Using myself as an example, I automatically save vs buying from Amazon, since I don't pay the ~$10 tax that Amazon usually charges me. Of course, I don't get it nearly as fast as I would with Prime. But you're not paying for fast shipping - you're paying for that 50% chance of saving at least $11 (at the super low end). Not to mention the extra bonuses.
So, do you feel lucky, punk?
==Disclaimers:== 1) These calculations assume United States shipping. Sorry everyone else :/ 2) I looked at precisely the models offered here. Certainly, you can get the plain blade with a black handle for cheaper than any of the models listed here. So what? If that's what you want, go and buy it. Otherwise, if you're interested in one of the offered models, read on... 3) My calculation is based on "street price"; aka the lowest offer for New on Amazon (excluding one offer from a new seller that is blatantly in violation of Spyderco MAP), with free shipping. Amazon was cheaper or on-par with KnifeCenter for all models. 4) I don't take into account taxes (since Massdrop ships from New Jersey, whereas Amazon, er, usually doesn't), and I don't know where *you* live. The ~$10 of tax might tip the balance for you either way depending on place of residence.
=="Street" prices:== C36GPCMO $155.97 C36GPCMOBK $167.97 C36GPBK $167.97 C36GPDBL $173.97 C36TIP $191.54 C36TIFP $281.97
* Note that C36GPCMO and C36GPCMOBK are both part of the combined 50% for Spyderco Military with G-10 Handle (black or digi camo), but are priced differently. Therefore I had to split them up, each with 25% probability overall.
==Results:== Not taking into account the extra bonuses, the expected value of the drop is $170.51. So, expected value ($170.51) - lowest drop price ($155.99) - shipping ($3.50) = $11.02 *predicted* savings.
I didn't do the math wrt to the bonus prizes, but intuition suggests it is insignificant for the expected value calculation.
==Observations:== 1) Save for shipping, in no circumstances are you paying more than you would have paid Amazon. 2) You have a 50% chance of paying *at least* $11 (factoring in shipping) *less* than you would have on Amazon. ~$11 is the "worst case" part of this 50%. Obviously the savings ramp up dramatically as the probabilities fall. 3) At the extreme, you have a 2% chance of saving $122.48 (if you get the fluted titanium model).
==Conclusions:== It's a statistics game. There are several variables that affect whether this makes sense for you or not. Using myself as an example, I automatically save vs buying from Amazon, since I don't pay the ~$10 tax that Amazon usually charges me. Of course, I don't get it nearly as fast as I would with Prime. But you're not paying for fast shipping - you're paying for that 50% chance of saving at least $11 (at the super low end). Not to mention the extra bonuses.
So, do you feel lucky, punk?