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MTG Booster Box Grab Bag

MTG Booster Box Grab Bag

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(10 reviews)
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Iconic Masters and dragons maze
Dragons of Tarkir. Guess I technically overpaid, but I had a good time. And honestly anything that's out of print is kinda cool!
I got battle for zendikar
Reading through all of these please note that the "Randomness" is not a truly random number generator makes. This is the "random" of "eenie minke moe" just some guy deciding at time of purchase. I'd be okay, but many buyers aren't.
If this could run over until my next paycheck I could feel comfortable splurging for this, but nah.
Born of the Gods and Iconic Masters
Dragon's Maze and Iconic Masters. Broke even cost wise. Fun to open the brown box and see the special set though!
Born of the Gods. Feels bad man. Haven’t opened it yet but maaaaaybe there are some gods.
Return to Ravnica. It would have been better if I didn't just get a bunch of RtR in the previous drop....
Good thing I came to see the discussion I thought it was 36 random boosters. Was about to pull the trigger. Sorry for those who got sub par boxes.
Gatecrash
I received Masters 25 and Dragon's Maze with a note that asked me to share what I got as a person that received a "good box."
Tamrian
I wouldn't buy a box of Dragons maze for 40$ there is no value in the set and you can buy a play set of commons and uncommons for 20$
realistically you got 150 M25 and 50$ DZ 200$ for 220$ it was a terrible deal.
Trash grab, probably wouldn't do it again, too much loss of value if you get a stinker set (any core set)
Got the 2014 Core Set. Had 4 planeswalkers and a lot of high dollar cards. 10/10. Would gamble again.
Decimas5
what high dollar cards are in 2014 core set? lol
seth.blazofsky
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This was the big stuff. Had some pricey commons in there too.
Would be interesting to see concerns be addressed with the randomization of boxes distributed. Honestly, taking the listed 100 on little sheets of paper and drawing them out of a hat per 100 participants, showing all papers being added and drawn on video would probably suffice to address the concerns. Were something to that effect provided, this drop would probably have a considerably reduced amount of butthurt. Seems sketchy without any proof of randomization, like ebay repacks. I would participate should there be any evidence of randomization, otherwise seems like a dump of undesireables hidding behind claims of a gamble. GL to those who purchase
Got Born of the Gods and Iconic Masters. Not sure how good Gods was (did get 5 mythics, with Champion of Stray Souls, Xenagos, Mogis, and 2 Kiora), but the Aether Vial and Foil Mana drain were the best pulls of Iconic. X3
Received conspiracy take the crown and return to ravnica... whomp whomp
Welp, got a Dragons of Tarkir box, so not value here.
If anyone gets a high value box this time please post so we know somebody got it seeing the results of the last one seems a bit sketch
Based on the assumption that the set distribution on the item is correct, that there 100 boxes available at that exact distribution, and that the EV doesn't change between now and when you receive the box, you have a ~16% of getting a box with an EV of at least what you paid to play.
Is this loss?! No...wait, it’s a LOSS of your money!
This drop seems a bit sketchy only Iconic Masters and Avacyn Restored were mentioned in previous drops. nearly all of the over 100$ dollar boxes were not reported, or no one received them. so this mean that the only ones left are the good one? probably not

If this was a 99$ drop I would still not pull the trigger. more then 1/2 these are sub 80$ boxes
Got Dragons of Tarkir. Probably won't do this again.
Got Journey into Nyx, not the most exciting, probably won't buy it again. But it was fun. Ended up getting a good chunk of Miscut commons.
Bought 2. Not sure I’ll break even but I can Atleast be hopeful!
I got fate reforged. I'm all for a little gambling (which these drops are) but based on the comment below I won't be buying one again.
I got M2014
I got Journey Into Nyx and Avacyn Restored!
The good news (for me): I got Iconic Masters! (And Dragon's Maze, ahem.) Very excited to crack these open.
The bad news: I'm relatively certain that the draw for this grab bag was not random and/or the pool of potential outcomes is not what was originally stated. Why? Because someone left a list in my box showing the exact sets that were shipped.
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Now to be clear, it is certainly *possible* for something like this to be generated randomly from the probabilities in the listing. But there are compelling reasons to doubt, and I will lay out a few of them here.
First, lack of accuracy to the stated list. The 100-unit limit for this drop implied that each 'percent' on the list corresponded to a single booster box. And yet three M2014 boxes shipped (2% chance). Second, too much uniformity. This tends to be a problem anytime a human being tries to "act random," and it looks to have happened here. For example, notice how sets with a 7% chance shipped exactly 3 units. It is again possible but quite unlikely to for that to have happened randomly. Third, not enough variety. In a way MD was unlucky that this paper ended up in my box, as I have a decent statistics background. I ran a series of simulations to determine how many different sets we would expect to see in a group of 30 randomly selected boxes (the number shipped in this case) given the probabilities in the listing. The answer is 18; the chances of selecting 12 (or less) total different sets (which supposedly happened here) is around 0.1%, or 1 in 1000.
And finally, the fact that this ordered, hand-written list even exists. Any process for 'randomly' choosing something in 2018 is going to involve a computer or phone. Why wouldn't the end result of said process remain on said computer or phone (or if absolutely needed, be printed out)? And honestly even if, for some reason, legit results were copied down onto this paper, the list should not have been alphabetically re-ordered as they were in this case, as that affects who gets which box.
In conclusion, this drop is a great idea but it is unlikely that MD actually followed the rules it set out for itself. Let me know what you think!
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I believe your story more than I don’t. Just had to point out that it’s not the best idea to just completely buy into one side or the other.
agentmayhem
I like this post a lot. This drop got me to do my own analysis a while back, and one of the assumptions I made was that they were making random choices without replacement, but that seems like it's not the case. I also didn't think of tracking the number of unique sets in a sample, so if this drop comes up again, I'll add both to my script to see how it shakes out.
I disagree about the list, however. It exists because someone ran their script (or however they chose), wrote down which boxes to get, and went back into the storeroom to grab them. I doubt they made an app for it, and a computer would be too bulky to keep referring to. My sample table was sorted by expected value, because that's what I was most interested in, but alphabetical makes the most sense if your goal is to grab the boxes as efficiently as possible.
They COULD have brought them back and assigned them to the buyers who selected them, but I think that's a little unlikely given how the rest of these drops have gone. I still think they're a bad deal, and even worse without a little transparency about their methods.
Dragons of Tarkir
Kizzazle
Aaaand I opened two Kolaghan’s Command. One foil and one regular. This box was actually better than the Dominaria boxes I just opened.