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Showing 1 of 62 conversations about:
liryon
71
May 21, 2017
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Reflection
19
May 22, 2017
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liryonI the expected value of this drop at $44.05 or is that the expected value of any random fat pack from this drop? The drop is for two (2) fat packs. If you have accounted for that, then disregard. If not, the expected value of this drop just went to $88.10.
jmacdonald
24
May 22, 2017
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liryonIt looks like the expected value per pack you are using is actually of an opened pack, not sealed product. You would be better off looking at market prices of sealed product. For instance, I know of nowhere I can get an unopened pack of BFZ for $1.02, or unopened Innistraad for $3.10, for that matter. I am not surprised that the expected value of cards inside a pack of BFZ are that low though, but that is just basically saying never buy sealed product and not really identifying whether this drop is in fact a good deal on sealed product or not.
And thanks for sharing your work! Really appreciate the effort.
And thanks for sharing your work! Really appreciate the effort.
liryon
71
May 23, 2017
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ReflectionIf you bothered to look at the linked spreadsheet you will see that I have in fact already accounted for the fact that there are two fat packs in this drop. The EV of one fat pack in this drop is ~$22.02
liryon
71
May 23, 2017
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jmacdonaldCorrect, I am using the expected value of an opened pack with the assumption that the goal here is to buy magic cards and accessories for use playing the game. It is difficult to play the game with sealed product, although; I have used sealed packs as tokens before. Someone, will eventually open the pack, and the price they will pay for that privilege will depend on the expected value of the cards inside as a primary, but not the only factor.
Reflection
19
May 23, 2017
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liryonAh thanks. I would imagine the majority of people buying this drop aren't interested in cracking the packs for value. The sealed value of the fat packs is likely more relevant.
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I computed this using the expected value of the packs from http://mtg.dawnglare.com/?p=sets&pack=1 at the time of this posting . I added $2 to each pack to cover the value of the box/dice included. For AKH I added $6 for the tokens and land pack which brings it's value up to current retail prices. For BFZ and OGW I added $16 for the land packs based on cursory look at completed e-bay listing. See my work here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d6_cMwbV6XWi-0nvyHDQPKf58wGca8EfdTuWCahxS9U/edit?usp=sharing