Based on an excel sheet and current prices, there's a 76% chance that you'll loose at least 5% based on current going prices and and around a 20% chance you'll end up paying double for one of the core set boxes which are going for around a hundred. On the flip, about a 12 percent chance you'll roughly double or exceed double your value put in with the highlights there being
Total of 1 -$700/Box (1) box of Lorwyn
Total of 1 - $650/Box (1) Worldwake
Total of 1 - $550/Box (1) Rise of Eldrazi
Total of 5 - $500/Box (1) Dark Steel, (1) Modern Masters 2013, (1) Shadowmoor, (1) Timespiral, and (1) Zendikar
Total of 3 - $400/Box (1) Morningtide, (1) Onslaught, and (1) Stronghold
Total of 2 - $350/Box (1) Dissension and (1) Innistrad
Not a big fan of those odds. but I'd say it seems like you've got about a 1 in 4 chance to get something that's worth AT LEAST the price you paid.
Interestingly, the rough total cost of the buy ins would be 21K. Based on current prices, the rough value of the whole lot is $20,845. That's significantly closer than I'd initially thought.
SirBobSwarleyYes, That is basically how these grab bags seem to work.. The total value of all boxes is roughly equal to the cost of all boxes. However, in order to provide boxes worth a lot more than the buy in price there has to be boxes worth a lot less also or whomever is putting up all of the boxes will lose in the end.. Pretty similar to scratching off those instant lottery tickets as you are hoping for the big prizes but know you most likely will lose money.. At least here you do still end up with a box of cards to open that could contain good/valuable cards even if the box itself isnt one of the better boxes.. No one would even say these grab bags are a good investment but they can be fun...
scedaveI wonder about the odds. How do they decide which one goes to someone if only 15 people join the drop? Is it the low buck ones first?
Thinking about trying this drop out purely in the name of science. We should take guesses as to what I'd get!
SirBobSwarleyI would totally be down if we could get enough people to actually fill out the drop, but usually these drops never fill up and we have no idea what the actual odds/"payout" is. I'm not convinced the actual seller ships off the good boxes or picks them out randomly, it's a black box as to what actually happens on the back end. If it actually filled up and someone was guaranteed a high value box, i'm totally in. Otherwise it's a waste of money.
SirBobSwarleyHey man, thanks for doing the math for us. I was wondering exactly what you posted.
I feel like they should remove the least valued sets based on how many people join the drop. That would at least make it more fair competing vs. the odds for the better ROI sets.
Not a big fan of those odds. but I'd say it seems like you've got about a 1 in 4 chance to get something that's worth AT LEAST the price you paid. Interestingly, the rough total cost of the buy ins would be 21K. Based on current prices, the rough value of the whole lot is $20,845. That's significantly closer than I'd initially thought.
Thinking about trying this drop out purely in the name of science. We should take guesses as to what I'd get!