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MTG Fat Pack Grab Bag
01 / 09
MTG Fat Pack Grab Bag
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Product Description
For the Magic player who has everything (can you really have everything?), there’s the Fat Pack Grab Bag, packed to the brim with exciting miscellany to grow your collection. Each bundle is made up of one Fat Pack from a wide range of sets, from the more common sets to the super rare Read More
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keyboard_arrow_downjeb_of_the_valley
24
Mar 26, 2018
The price on this drop should be much lower. Using dawnglare and tcg mid price per pack estimates. Good luck everyone!
Biggdog
54
Mar 27, 2018
Here's a spreadsheet based on TCG Player Market prices for fat packs. While I'm not a fan of grab bag/blind buys, as they are basically a gamble on top of another gamble, the drop however is so-so.
The total value based on market price is just north of $4k, so the average "value" is just above the price of the drop.
Provided this sells out, there is a;
30% chance of getting one w/ a market price above the buy-in price.
21% chance of one above average market value .
8% chance of one above average market price.
Jeb's sheet using Dawnglare's Expected Value calcs does underline what a poor value proposition fat packs and booster cracking in general is though and how prices on old magic stock are over inflated.
Jeb's sheet using Dawnglare's Expected Value calcs does underline what a poor value proposition fat packs and booster cracking in general is though and how prices on old magic stock are over inflated.
Nortauk
11
Jan 11, 2018
So is the $39.99 price for one Fat Pack or two? the Description makes it sound like one, but under "Included" it mentions that two will be randomly selected.
spddmn
18
Nov 30, 2018
"Random" Haha, you're kidding right? A new interesting way of selling crappy excess stock. A re-pack scheme where you don't even have to open anything. Clever.
I am going to post a drop myself that will include one random MTG booster box. $225 (MSRP $1,000,000)
Here are your possibilities (good luck):
Zendikar 1
Mirrodin 1
Innistrad 1
Modern Masters 1
Dragon's Maze 100
Homelands 25
Fallen Empires 32
VictoryFTW
11
Nov 17, 2017
WARNING to anyone considering this drop: leaving aside the EV, the listing for this drop is inaccurate (and potentially fraudulent). Massdrop very explicitly specifies that each Fat Pack comes with 10 boosters but this is not the case; older Fat Packs only have 8 boosters. This is an effective 20% reduction in value-from-boosters for old Fat Packs, and while I assume other posters have factored this in to their EV calculations it is still important to note for prospective buyers.
Massdrop: Please resolve this issue as soon as possible; the product you are selling does not match what your listing. Either you are explicitly lying in your product description or you are opening these sealed products and inserting more boosters, neither of which are really okay.
Massdrop: Please resolve this issue as soon as possible; the product you are selling does not match what your listing. Either you are explicitly lying in your product description or you are opening these sealed products and inserting more boosters, neither of which are really okay.
VictoryFTW
11
Nov 17, 2017
You're not wrong; M11 and Scars of Mirrodin have 8, and the rest up through Eldritch Moon have 9 if I'm not mistaken.
prplprince
219
Jan 11, 2018
VictoryFTWthats correct they replaced fat packs with the 10 pack "bundles" and they started in Kaladesh
Maddiganed
2
Mar 12, 2018
Got Kaladesh and Fate Reforged.
Unless they have anti-theft device when manufactured,which I doubt greatly, I know i have been robbed. These are not genuine WOTC fat packs. I only opened the kaladesh fat pack and i haven't been surprised. Best rare was a smuggling Copter. The wrap didn't have the logo WOTC. Good lesson for the future. Never ever purchase grab like these. Lesson learned
scedave
130
May 16, 2018
No offense but I dont think anyone is out there making fake Eldrich Moon cards at this point. You say they are repacked because you didnt get a good card and then you imply they must be fake because of the quality of the cards.. It would cost someone way more money to reprint cards from a new set like Eldrich Moon than the cards are worth so I am pretty sure I can say with certainty that you are incorrect in your assumptions..
MojitoMafia
10
May 16, 2018
scedaveI wouldn’t think someone would fake Eldritch Moon either but every single one of these packs was clearly opened before I received them, if anything Massdrop sourced these from a sketchy vendor. My best guess is these had any cards of value pulled from them and were repacked a few years ago around the time the block originally came out or when it was still Standard, then this fat pack just sat in a warehouse or on a shelf somewhere to be purchased by Massdrop years later.
I'm not complaining about odds, I knew fully what I was getting into with odds not being great to get a good block but figured it would be fun to take the gamble anyways for $40. Wasn’t super stoked I got Eldritch Moon but figured it could be worse since I never played this block before and at least it wasn’t a Theros block or something I already have thousands of cards from.
Obviously rare pulls alone are never going to make me think something is a repack, I’ve been playing MtG for a very long time and have gotten plenty of fat packs and booster boxes that were complete duds with very underwhelming cards, that’s part of playing Magic. I was using the rare cards I pulled and the fact that so many were the same card as a way to illustrate things seemed a little fishy with this fat pack combined with the other factors I mentioned with card and wrapper condition.
So I’m glad you have so much confidence in your assumptions that I’m wrong when you’ve never seen these packs and have no idea what I’m talking about, but go ahead and keep blindly defending Massdrop while putting down users in their comments because you think I’m new to Magic or lying about what I received for some reason.
I took these photos last night within 20 min of opening the fat pack, every single foil wrapper when held up to the light has gaps or clear tears at the seams even though I haven’t opened or done anything to the still “sealed” pack in the photos. I’d love your explanation on why the quality of all of these were far worse then any of the thousands of booster packs I’ve opened over the years.
I'm not complaining about odds, I knew fully what I was getting into with odds not being great to get a good block but figured it would be fun to take the gamble anyways for $40. Wasn’t super stoked I got Eldritch Moon but figured it could be worse since I never played this block before and at least it wasn’t a Theros block or something I already have thousands of cards from.
Obviously rare pulls alone are never going to make me think something is a repack, I’ve been playing MtG for a very long time and have gotten plenty of fat packs and booster boxes that were complete duds with very underwhelming cards, that’s part of playing Magic. I was using the rare cards I pulled and the fact that so many were the same card as a way to illustrate things seemed a little fishy with this fat pack combined with the other factors I mentioned with card and wrapper condition.
So I’m glad you have so much confidence in your assumptions that I’m wrong when you’ve never seen these packs and have no idea what I’m talking about, but go ahead and keep blindly defending Massdrop while putting down users in their comments because you think I’m new to Magic or lying about what I received for some reason.
I took these photos last night within 20 min of opening the fat pack, every single foil wrapper when held up to the light has gaps or clear tears at the seams even though I haven’t opened or done anything to the still “sealed” pack in the photos. I’d love your explanation on why the quality of all of these were far worse then any of the thousands of booster packs I’ve opened over the years.
Napadirtworm
15
May 23, 2017
Massdrop team, just a reminder that older fatpacks dont include 10 packs. That was a recent change when the fatpact turned into a bundle. You might want to look into that before you get ticked massdroppers.
phlash12
1
Jul 30, 2017
NapadirtwormI sent an e-mail to Massdrop about this and other issues with this posting, and it completely ignored me (because this Massdrop post is borderline fraud).
Greywolf74
12
Feb 10, 2019
So aside from the fact theres only a few fat packs in this that are worth anything, were just supposed, to take some random blokes word for it that he even has all those old fat packs that are even worth money? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Get bent!
scedave
130
Feb 6, 2019
CoinFlip808There are 100 boxes per drop. The total sold shows how many units have been sold in total everytime the drop has been run...
(Edited)
liryon
71
Jul 24, 2017
This drop is back in July 2017, and the percentages for each fat pack have changed. The expected value of this drop, based on the expected value of the packs in the fat packs (and not the value of the sealed fat pack) is $39.26, using tcg mid prices via http://mtg.dawnglare.com/?p=sets . This accounts for the fact that the drop includes 2 packs. See my work at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UCtFWmHWDm3JHJBN31IrE08NDvHdxGW_tU88DnTz-BI/edit?usp=sharing
Unopened fat packs may fetch more value than the packs inside them would, but ultimately the eventual consumer will open the packs and the price they will pay to do so will depend on the value of the contents of the packs in large part. Therefore this method is a good way to estimate the floor of the value of these items.
The percentages given do not at up to 100%, they add up to 199.98% which makes no sense. If we take these percentages as a number of fat packs they have out of 199.98 fat packs and recompute the percentages normalized to 100% you get what G_zimmer computed below. This post originally had a mistake and claimed they added up to ~134%. The EV given above is wrong as it was based on this mistake. I've edited it to remove the mistaken data. See the updated EV in my reply below.
Unopened fat packs may fetch more value than the packs inside them would, but ultimately the eventual consumer will open the packs and the price they will pay to do so will depend on the value of the contents of the packs in large part. Therefore this method is a good way to estimate the floor of the value of these items.
The percentages given do not at up to 100%, they add up to 199.98% which makes no sense. If we take these percentages as a number of fat packs they have out of 199.98 fat packs and recompute the percentages normalized to 100% you get what G_zimmer computed below. This post originally had a mistake and claimed they added up to ~134%. The EV given above is wrong as it was based on this mistake. I've edited it to remove the mistaken data. See the updated EV in my reply below.
G_zimmer
38
Jul 27, 2017
liryonLooks like they updated the percentages.
New Sum of Percentages: 199.98%
New "normalized" percentages
Hour of Devastation 32.53% Amonkhet 10.85% Aether Revolt 10.85% Kaladesh 1.21% Eldritch Moon 3.62% Shadows over Innistrad 3.62% Oath of the Gatewatch 7.23% Battle for Zendikar 0.60% Dragons of Tarkir 0.60% Fate Reforged 1.21% Khans of Tarkir 1.21% Journey into Nyx 1.21% Born of the Gods 1.21% Theros 1.21% Dragon's Maze 1.81% Gatecrash 1.21% Return to Ravnica 1.21% Avacyn Restored 0.60% Dark Ascenson 0.60% Innistrad 0.60% New Phyrexia 0.60% Mirrodin Besieged 1.21% Scars of Mirrodin 1.21% Origins 10.85% M14 1.21% M13 1.21% M11 0.60%
New Sum of Percentages: 199.98%
New "normalized" percentages
Hour of Devastation 32.53% Amonkhet 10.85% Aether Revolt 10.85% Kaladesh 1.21% Eldritch Moon 3.62% Shadows over Innistrad 3.62% Oath of the Gatewatch 7.23% Battle for Zendikar 0.60% Dragons of Tarkir 0.60% Fate Reforged 1.21% Khans of Tarkir 1.21% Journey into Nyx 1.21% Born of the Gods 1.21% Theros 1.21% Dragon's Maze 1.81% Gatecrash 1.21% Return to Ravnica 1.21% Avacyn Restored 0.60% Dark Ascenson 0.60% Innistrad 0.60% New Phyrexia 0.60% Mirrodin Besieged 1.21% Scars of Mirrodin 1.21% Origins 10.85% M14 1.21% M13 1.21% M11 0.60%
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