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Product Description
For the Magic player who has everything (can you really have everything?), there’s the Rare Booster Box Grab Bag, packed to the brim with exciting miscellany to grow your collection. Each participant will get a randomly selected Booster Box from a wide range of past MTG sets (33 total), from the rare to the super rare—so, if you're feeling lucky, give it a shot and you could strike it rich! Read More
Based on an excel sheet and current prices, there's a 76% chance that you'll loose at least 5% based on current going prices and and around a 20% chance you'll end up paying double for one of the core set boxes which are going for around a hundred. On the flip, about a 12 percent chance you'll roughly double or exceed double your value put in with the highlights there being
Total of 1 -$700/Box (1) box of Lorwyn
Total of 1 - $650/Box (1) Worldwake
Total of 1 - $550/Box (1) Rise of Eldrazi
Total of 5 - $500/Box (1) Dark Steel, (1) Modern Masters 2013, (1) Shadowmoor, (1) Timespiral, and (1) Zendikar
Total of 3 - $400/Box (1) Morningtide, (1) Onslaught, and (1) Stronghold
Total of 2 - $350/Box (1) Dissension and (1) Innistrad
Not a big fan of those odds. but I'd say it seems like you've got about a 1 in 4 chance to get something that's worth AT LEAST the price you paid.
Interestingly, the rough total cost of the buy ins would be 21K. Based on current prices, the rough value of the whole lot is $20,845. That's significantly closer than I'd initially thought.
I would totally be down if we could get enough people to actually fill out the drop, but usually these drops never fill up and we have no idea what the actual odds/"payout" is. I'm not convinced the actual seller ships off the good boxes or picks them out randomly, it's a black box as to what actually happens on the back end. If it actually filled up and someone was guaranteed a high value box, i'm totally in. Otherwise it's a waste of money.
SirBobSwarleyHey man, thanks for doing the math for us. I was wondering exactly what you posted.
I feel like they should remove the least valued sets based on how many people join the drop. That would at least make it more fair competing vs. the odds for the better ROI sets.
They should just call this drop "more than likely pay 50 to 100 clams more for a core set box". If you get some of the other boxes though it's a pretty good deal.
This is a scam. If you are new to MTG do not buy this.
The only things you can buy on the internet:
Singles from a reputable dealer
SEALED product. Must have have plastic wrap with the Wizards of the Coast seal
Cant disagree that those would be 2 of the losing boxes in this drop.. I was referring to the post about getting Chronicles which I thought would be a pretty good box to get based on what they cost elsewhere. No doubt about it. You are taking a risk that you will get something worth less than what you paid. When you have a chance to win at something there usually is a chance to lose also.
dahermittThat was my first thought too. While this may or may not be the greatest drop, the inclusion of Chronicles really puts a sour taint on the whole thing.
scedaveBecause you will most likely be paying double for a booster box. I'm all for a little gambling (I have partaken in some of the fat pack grab bags before) but this one just seems outrageously expensive based on the EV and the current market price of most of the boxes. You can currently get MM15 for 250, so even if you somehow pull a box of MM15 it's still not an amazing deal. You will most likely lose out on this drop.
TheVaultSo let me understand this correctly.. There is not a single box on the list that you can buy for under $100 and you have the chance to get many different boxes worth between $200-$700 but yet you still want 2-3 boxes for $219.
How exactly would Massdrop or the person supplying Massdrop not lose a fortune if that was the situation?
scedaveI don't feed the trolls or social justice warriors - or are you the seller or something? Proof is in the pudding, as they say. Let's just sit back and see how many people actually buy one.